Updated on Monday 25 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 97720 (+633) 1643246 (+20634) 366736 (+5497) 1178790 (+14504)
United Kingdom 36875 (+118) 260916 (+2412) 1151 (+2) 222890 (+2292)
Italy 32785 (+50) 229858 (+531) 140479 (+1639) 56594 (-1158)
Spain 28752 (+74) 235772 (+482) 150376 (+0) 56644 (+408)
France 28370 (+152) 182709 (+673) 64735 (+747) 89604 (-226)
Brazil 22666 (+653) 363211 (+15813) 149911 (+7324) 190634 (+7836)
Belgium 9280 (+43) 57092 (+282) 15272 (+117) 32540 (+122)
Germany 8283 (+22) 180328 (+342) 160281 (+565) 11764 (-245)
Iran 7417 (+58) 135701 (+2180) 105801 (+1729) 22483 (+393)
Mexico 7394 (+215) 68620 (+2764) 46979 (+2555) 14247 (-6)
Canada 6534 (+68) 86106 (+955) 43998 (+680) 35574 (+207)
Netherlands 5841 (+11) 45437 (+172) 174 (+0) 39422 (+161)
China 4638 (+0) 84095 (+11) 79343 (+8) 114 (+3)
Turkey 4340 (+32) 156827 (+1141) 118694 (+1092) 33793 (+17)
India 4024 (+156) 138536 (+7113) 57692 (+3307) 76820 (+3650)
Sweden 3998 (+6) 33459 (+271) 4971 (+0) 24490 (+265)
Russia 3541 (+153) 344481 (+8599) 113299 (+5363) 227641 (+3083)
Peru 3456 (+83) 119959 (+4205) 49795 (+1880) 66708 (+2242)
Ecuador 3108 (+12) 36756 (+498) 3560 (+3) 30088 (+483)
Switzerland 1906 (+1) 30736 (+11) 28100 (+100) 730 (-90)
Ireland 1608 (+4) 24639 (+57) 21060 (+0) 1971 (+53)
Indonesia 1372 (+21) 22271 (+526) 5402 (+153) 15497 (+352)
Portugal 1316 (+14) 30623 (+152) 17549 (+9844) 11758 (-9706)
Romania 1185 (+9) 18070 (+213) 11399 (+212) 5486 (-8)
Pakistan 1133 (+32) 54601 (+2164) 17198 (+545) 36270 (+1587)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 340421 (+2962) 5323518 (+97240) 2089220 (+56370)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 340587 ( +2896) 5337385 ( +75837) 2130783 ( +58688)
Tue 26 May 2020 343307 ( +2721) 5410502 ( +73118) 2189194 ( +58411)
Wed 27 May 2020 345858 ( +2551) 5480814 ( +70312) 2247119 ( +57925)
Thu 28 May 2020 348244 ( +2386) 5548258 ( +67443) 2304354 ( +57235)
Fri 29 May 2020 350472 ( +2228) 5612793 ( +64535) 2360702 ( +56348)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 4638 (+0) 84095 (+11) 79343 (+8)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84057 ( +1) 78196 ( +0)
Tue 26 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84057 ( +1) 78196 ( +0)
Wed 27 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84058 ( +1) 78196 ( +0)
Thu 28 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84058 ( +0) 78196 ( +0)
Fri 29 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84059 ( +0) 78197 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 28752 (+74) 235772 (+482) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 28163 ( +40) 230902 ( +111) 152461 ( +468)
Tue 26 May 2020 28199 ( +36) 231001 ( +99) 152877 ( +416)
Wed 27 May 2020 28232 ( +33) 231090 ( +88) 153247 ( +370)
Thu 28 May 2020 28262 ( +30) 231169 ( +79) 153576 ( +328)
Fri 29 May 2020 28288 ( +27) 231239 ( +70) 153867 ( +291)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 32785 (+50) 229858 (+531) 140479 (+1639)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 32479 ( +57) 222359 ( +141) 141455 ( +1871)
Tue 26 May 2020 32532 ( +52) 222487 ( +129) 143246 ( +1791)
Wed 27 May 2020 32579 ( +48) 222604 ( +117) 144959 ( +1712)
Thu 28 May 2020 32623 ( +44) 222710 ( +106) 146594 ( +1635)
Fri 29 May 2020 32663 ( +40) 222806 ( +96) 148152 ( +1559)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 36875 (+118) 260916 (+2412) 1151 (+2)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 36650 ( +155) 254187 ( +1146) 1443 ( +43)
Tue 26 May 2020 36790 ( +141) 255242 ( +1055) 1487 ( +45)
Wed 27 May 2020 36918 ( +127) 256213 ( +971) 1533 ( +46)
Thu 28 May 2020 37033 ( +115) 257105 ( +892) 1581 ( +47)
Fri 29 May 2020 37138 ( +104) 257925 ( +820) 1629 ( +49)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 97720 (+633) 1643246 (+20634) 366736 (+5497)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 97526 ( +686) 1625340 ( +12385) 357984 ( +9419)
Tue 26 May 2020 98155 ( +629) 1636862 ( +11522) 367386 ( +9402)
Wed 27 May 2020 98731 ( +576) 1647562 ( +10700) 376763 ( +9377)
Thu 28 May 2020 99258 ( +527) 1657480 ( +9918) 386108 ( +9345)
Fri 29 May 2020 99738 ( +480) 1666659 ( +9179) 395412 ( +9304)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 28370 (+152) 182709 (+673) 64735 (+747)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 28359 ( +51) 180602 ( +47) 64328 ( +255)
Tue 26 May 2020 28405 ( +46) 180644 ( +42) 64561 ( +233)
Wed 27 May 2020 28446 ( +42) 180680 ( +36) 64774 ( +213)
Thu 28 May 2020 28484 ( +37) 180712 ( +32) 64968 ( +194)
Fri 29 May 2020 28517 ( +34) 180740 ( +28) 65145 ( +177)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 8283 (+22) 180328 (+342) 160281 (+565)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 8050 ( +10) 178463 ( +176) 159729 ( +588)
Tue 26 May 2020 8059 ( +9) 178623 ( +159) 160278 ( +549)
Wed 27 May 2020 8067 ( +8) 178767 ( +144) 160790 ( +512)
Thu 28 May 2020 8074 ( +7) 178897 ( +130) 161267 ( +478)
Fri 29 May 2020 8080 ( +6) 179015 ( +118) 161713 ( +446)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 5841 (+11) 45437 (+172) 174 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 5798 ( +9) 44491 ( +38) nan ( +nan)
Tue 26 May 2020 5806 ( +8) 44525 ( +34) nan ( +nan)
Wed 27 May 2020 5813 ( +7) 44555 ( +30) nan ( +nan)
Thu 28 May 2020 5820 ( +6) 44582 ( +27) nan ( +nan)
Fri 29 May 2020 5825 ( +6) 44606 ( +24) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 9280 (+43) 57092 (+282) 15272 (+117)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 9272 ( +18) 55072 ( +47) 15134 ( +50)
Tue 26 May 2020 9288 ( +16) 55114 ( +42) 15179 ( +45)
Wed 27 May 2020 9302 ( +14) 55152 ( +38) 15220 ( +41)
Thu 28 May 2020 9314 ( +12) 55186 ( +34) 15257 ( +37)
Fri 29 May 2020 9325 ( +11) 55217 ( +30) 15291 ( +33)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 3998 (+6) 33459 (+271) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 3998 ( +34) 33774 ( +394) 5062 ( +0)
Tue 26 May 2020 4031 ( +33) 34150 ( +376) 5062 ( +0)
Wed 27 May 2020 4062 ( +31) 34509 ( +358) 5062 ( +0)
Thu 28 May 2020 4091 ( +29) 34849 ( +341) 5062 ( +0)
Fri 29 May 2020 4119 ( +28) 35173 ( +323) 5062 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 996 (+3) 21326 (+395) 9194 (+217)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 1004 ( +9) 21437 ( +306) 9037 ( +142)
Tue 26 May 2020 1013 ( +8) 21731 ( +294) 9168 ( +132)
Wed 27 May 2020 1021 ( +8) 22013 ( +282) 9289 ( +121)
Thu 28 May 2020 1028 ( +8) 22283 ( +270) 9401 ( +111)
Fri 29 May 2020 1035 ( +7) 22540 ( +257) 9503 ( +102)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 1906 (+1) 30736 (+11) 28100 (+100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 1894 ( +1) 30543 ( +3) 27841 ( +29)
Tue 26 May 2020 1895 ( +1) 30545 ( +2) 27866 ( +25)
Wed 27 May 2020 1896 ( +1) 30547 ( +2) 27888 ( +22)
Thu 28 May 2020 1897 ( +1) 30549 ( +1) 27907 ( +19)
Fri 29 May 2020 1897 ( +1) 30550 ( +1) 27924 ( +17)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 22666 (+653) 363211 (+15813) 149911 (+7324)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 23329 ( +839) 379476 ( +18265) 162150 ( +9970)
Tue 26 May 2020 24156 ( +827) 398145 ( +18669) 172773 ( +10623)
Wed 27 May 2020 24968 ( +812) 417176 ( +19031) 184091 ( +11319)
Thu 28 May 2020 25762 ( +794) 436525 ( +19349) 196152 ( +12060)
Fri 29 May 2020 26537 ( +775) 456143 ( +19618) 209002 ( +12850)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 24 May 2020 7417 (+58) 135701 (+2180) 105801 (+1729)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 7290 ( +25) 120931 ( +341) 97227 ( +265)
Tue 26 May 2020 7313 ( +23) 121250 ( +319) 97470 ( +243)
Wed 27 May 2020 7334 ( +22) 121548 ( +298) 97692 ( +222)
Thu 28 May 2020 7355 ( +20) 121826 ( +278) 97895 ( +203)
Fri 29 May 2020 7373 ( +19) 122086 ( +260) 98081 ( +186)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.